Monday, December 8, 2008

Hopefully Specious Relationship

Obama won 53 percent of the popular vote, the largest majority earned by a presidential candidate since 1964, when Lyndon Johnson won 61 percent. This factoid has been spread extensively, reiterating the historic and uprecedented nature of Obama's victory.

One factoid that has not been spread as liberally (although I don't read conservative blogs, and this is likely something they'd point out) is the shameful fate of LBJ. In 1968, just four years (or one presidential term) after his landmark victory, he didn't even run for re-election because his popularity had sunk to such low levels.

Apparently, we must be wary to conclude that the initial wide margin of victory enjoyed by a president necessarily means that he will enjoy support throughout his administration or that he will continue to represent the will of those who have overwhelmingly elected him. Indeed, if history is any indicator for the future, popular presidents must not abuse their mandate and consider their initial popularity to provide them with a carte blanche to pursue pet policy interests motivated by the blind assumption that this popularity will persist indefinitely.

LBJ was doomed by Vietnam. Now, there is clearly no shortage of potential policy blunders for Obama to stumble into that will seal his fate and have historians consider him to be just another one-term wonder. I hope this does not happen, but I must acknowledge that it can.

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